Bangladesh's Election Promises: Can Parties Deliver Jobs and Economic Relief to Youth?

With Bangladesh's election approaching, political parties are making bold promises to woo young voters, but analysts question whether these pledges can be realistically delivered amid economic challenges.

Youth Unemployment and Election Promises

Mohaiminul Rafi, 27, has spent years preparing for civil service exams, seeking what he calls "the most reliable route to a secure life": a government job. As election campaigning intensifies, he hears promises of cash support, interest-free loans for the jobless, and sweeping job-creation targets. Rafi, who joined the 2024 protests over unfair job reservation systems, says, "What matters more is a healthy job market and recruitment on merit."

Bangladesh faces significant economic hurdles: growth has slowed to 4-5% in recent years from over 8% pre-pandemic, while inflation remains high, squeezing purchasing power. Private investment is stagnant at 22-23% of GDP, and the tax-to-GDP ratio is under 7%, far below the 15% many economists recommend for sustainable public services.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, an economist, notes that while the interim administration brought some stability, it has been "extraordinarily inattentive to economic distress at the household level" and failed to boost business confidence. "Bangladesh urgently needs a restart," he says, but warns the election is unlikely to produce dramatic improvements.

Competing Promises from Major Parties

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami are offering a range of pledges to address voter anxieties. The BNP's flagship pledge is a "family card" providing 2,000-2,500 taka ($16-$20) monthly to 4 million households, either as cash or essentials. This would cost about 1.2 trillion taka ($9.8 billion) annually, nearly doubling current social protection spending.

Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury of the BNP says the party plans to invest in health, education, and upskilling, while supporting artisans and small industries with credit and market access. Economists like Towfiqul Islam Khan caution that ensuring quality social security requires more than 2% of GDP, and delivery must avoid leakage and target the right groups.

Jamaat-e-Islami proposes a "smart social security card" linking National ID, health access, taxation, and safety services. Mokarram Hossain, a Swansea University professor involved in the plan, emphasizes "good governance, zero tolerance to corruption, and efficiency gains" rather than token cash handouts.

Asif Shahan, a Dhaka University professor, explains that simplified messages like "family card" resonate more with voters than detailed blueprints, but people are watching to see if benefits are distributed fairly.

Jobs, Education, and Youth-Focused Policies

Both parties are targeting young voters, who make up about one-third of the electorate. Government data shows unemployment among college-educated people at 13.5%, with 885,000 graduates jobless. Overall unemployment is 4.63%, affecting 2.7 million people.

The BNP pledges to create 10 million jobs within 18 months, provide financial support to the educated unemployed, and ensure merit-based government recruitment. It also aims to boost the digital economy with 800,000 IT jobs and introduce international payment gateways like PayPal to support freelancers.

Jamaat-e-Islami focuses on training and placement, promising to train 10 million youth within five years, establish youth tech labs in every sub-district, and create district-level job banks. It also offers interest-free loans of up to 10,000 taka ($80) monthly for unemployed graduates, though these must be repaid.

Economists say delivering these job promises requires sustained GDP growth of 8-10% and a surge in investment. Rahman is skeptical of interest-free loans, calling them "populist measures without much proven impact" and stressing the need for actual employment opportunities.

Education proposals include the BNP's "one teacher, one tab" initiative to provide tablets to teachers, expand vocational education, and introduce third-language learning. Jamaat offers interest-free education loans and support for studying at top global universities, though Rahman warns of the burden of student loans.

Economic Challenges and Feasibility

Jamaat proposes cutting corporate tax to 19% and VAT to 10%, while the BNP promises business-friendly reforms. Hossain estimates that tightening tax collection could recover 1.05-2 trillion taka ($8.5-$16.4 billion) to fund promises without expanding the budget. However, Khan emphasizes the need for a broader revenue system overhaul to boost investment.

In other sectors, Jamaat pledges to freeze industrial utility tariffs for three years and reopen closed factories with worker ownership. The BNP proposes a "farmer card" for subsidies and easier loans, while Jamaat offers interest-free loans for small farmers. Both parties also outline health initiatives, such as recruiting healthcare workers and providing free care for certain groups.

Rahman notes that freezing utility tariffs has merit, but warns that agriculture and health promises face issues of leakage and mistargeting. Ultimately, he says, the contest is about whether a new government can deliver without straining the economy.

Rafi sums it up: "Promises come easily, but if the culture of extortions and bribes doesn't disappear, then we're back where we started."