Can the Coalition Really Cut 41,000 Public Service Jobs? An In-Depth Analysis

The Coalition is facing scrutiny over its ambitious target to downsize government roles by 41,000 in the next five years. According to a thorough analysis by Guardian Australia, achieving this goal without compromising its commitment to protect certain departments may prove impossible.

Shift in Strategy

On Monday, Peter Dutton backtracked on his initial promise to reverse the job cuts immediately. Instead, he proposed a gradual reduction through natural attrition, aiming to curb what he describes as “wasteful spending.” This new approach entails no redundancies and a hiring freeze to maintain the public service workforce at 213,439 roles as projected in the latest budget.

Frontline Staff Concerns

Dutton has assured that no cuts will occur in frontline staff or critical agencies, particularly those essential for national security. However, he has not clarified which roles will remain unfilled after current staff leave.

Staff Turnover Statistics

Data from the Australian Public Service Commission reveals that 11,782 staff departed the federal bureaucracy in 2024, with a staggering 57% coming from key departments such as home affairs and defence. Typically, around 11,000 staff leave each year, predominantly from frontline or essential roles, which means the Coalition will need to replace these individuals or risk breaking its promise.

Departmental Breakdown

• Services Australia, a key agency handling public income support, saw a loss of 3,577 staff in 2024, contributing to 30% of all public service departures.
• The Department of Defence lost 1,384 staff, while the Australian Taxation Office also experienced significant turnover, with more than 1,000 staff leaving.

Junior Roles Predominance

Notably, about 72% of those leaving were in junior roles, with salaries ranging between $76,000 and $120,000. This trend raises questions about the sustainability of the Coalition's staffing strategy.

Future Plans

Jane Hume, the opposition’s public service spokesperson, indicated that a Coalition government would conduct a thorough audit of the public service workforce, aiming for sensible adjustments if they come to power. In previous statements, Dutton suggested that cutting public service roles could save the budget $6 billion annually, totaling $24 billion over four years.

Historical Context

The Coalition's approach to trimming the federal bureaucracy isn't new. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott had similar goals, which resulted in a significant reduction in staffing levels during his tenure. The ongoing debate around public service efficiency continues as the Albanese government recently released an audit revealing that 54,000 full-time staff were employed as consultants, highlighting the complexities of managing public service roles effectively.