This week, a flurry of US economic data and key earnings reports are set to influence global markets, with potential ripple effects for Australian jobs and the Australian dollar (AUD). Traders and investors should brace for volatility as these events unfold.
US February ISM Data: A Barometer for Global Growth
Monday 2 March (manufacturing PMI) and Wednesday 4 March (services PMI) will see the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports. These provide a snapshot of US economic health, with the manufacturing sector expected at 52.3 (slightly down from 52.6) and services at 54 (up from 53.8).
These reports are crucial as they can sway the US dollar and, in turn, affect AUD/USD. Given Australia’s commodity-heavy economy—reliant on exports like iron ore, coal, gold, natural gas, and agricultural products—the AUD is sensitive to global growth signals and China-related demand. Currently trading near 0.705, not far from multi-year highs around 0.714, the pair is supported by resilient domestic conditions and RBA policy expectations.
Broadcom Q1 Earnings: AI in Focus
Wednesday 4 March brings Broadcom’s first-quarter results. As a key player in the artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor space, its performance is under scrutiny after Nvidia’s recent downbeat market reaction. Analysts forecast Q1 earnings growth of 26.3% to $2.02 per share and revenue up 28.3% to $19.1bn, with gross margin at 76.8%. Guidance will be critical, with Q2 revenue expected to surge 37.1% to $20.6bn.
The stock, down 7.5% this year to $321.70, may move 8.3% post-earnings, with implied volatility above 80%. Technically, resistance near $350 and support around $300 are key levels to watch.
Source: TradingView, Michael Kramer
US February Jobs Report: Labor Market Insights
Friday 6 March features the US non-farm payrolls report, with economists estimating 60,000 jobs added (down from 130,000 in January). The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings growth may ease to 0.3% month-on-month.
This release is pivotal for assessing US labor market strength and could influence Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. A strong report might dampen hopes for a March cut, potentially weighing on US stock indices like the Nasdaq 100, which has struggled above 25,800 resistance. Downside risks include support around 24,400 and November lows near 23,850.
Source: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Market Calendar: Key Events to Watch
Economic Data Highlights
| Date | Country | Event | Impact | |------|---------|-------|--------| | Tuesday 03 March | US | Purchasing Managers Index - PMI - ISM - Manufacturing | High | | Tuesday 03 March | AU | Balance of Payments - Net Exports Impact | High | | Wednesday 04 March | AU | Gross Domestic Product - GDP - QoQ and YoY | High | | Thursday 05 March | US | ADP National Employment Report - Private Payrolls Forecast | High | | Friday 06 March | US | Employment - Unemployment Claims - WoW | High |
Earnings Calendar
| Date (US) | Company Name | Timing | |-----------|--------------|--------| | Monday 02 March | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) | After Close | | Tuesday 03 March | CrowdStrike (CRWD) | After Close | | Wednesday 04 March | Broadcom (AVGO) | After Close | | Thursday 05 March | JD.com (JD) | Before Open | | Thursday 05 March | Costco Wholesale (COST) | After Close |
Note: Earnings releases in US market time may appear on the next calendar day in Australia and New Zealand due to time zone differences.
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