Last week, I published an article titled "Why New Zealand migration to Australia will fall", arguing that New Zealand's improving labour market would lead to fewer Kiwis migrating to Australia. The argument was built around a chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro showing how the ratio of SEEK NZ to Australian job ads has shot up recently, which has traditionally shadowed the difference between the two nations' unemployment rates.
"If New Zealand's unemployment rate narrows versus Australia's, which seems likely, then we are also likely to see fewer Kiwis migrating to Australia in the period ahead", I wrote.
This trend is significant for both countries' labour markets. As New Zealand's job market strengthens, the incentive for Kiwis to cross the Tasman diminishes. Historically, Australia has been a popular destination for New Zealanders seeking better employment opportunities, but this may be changing. The data suggests that the gap in job prospects is narrowing, which could lead to a more balanced migration flow. For Australian employers, this might mean a tighter labour market if Kiwi workers become less inclined to relocate. Conversely, for New Zealand, retaining more skilled workers could boost its economy. The coming months will reveal whether this prediction holds true.
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