Sydney's Job Market in 2036: How AI, Transport, and Demographics Will Reshape Your Career

A decade ago, predictions about Sydney's future were made, and now we look ahead to 2036. The city's economic landscape is set for a major transformation, driven by infrastructure, technology, and demographic shifts. Here's what you need to know about the changing job market in Sydney.

The Decentralisation of Sydney's Economy

Sydney's CBD has long been the heart of the city's economy, but by 2036, this could change significantly. According to KPMG economist Terry Rawnsley, the opening of Sydney's south-west and west metro rail lines will reshape how the city functions economically. "That big transport infrastructure over the next 10 years is going to really reshape how Sydney functions as an economic entity," Rawnsley says. He predicts that the concentration of the labour market in a single business district will disperse over several centres of economic activity.

While finance, insurance, and professional services will remain key sectors, their locations might shift. The metro will improve access to areas like North Sydney, Chatswood, and Macquarie Park. This decentralisation is compounded by post-pandemic trends, such as increased working from home, which University of Sydney professor Chris Wright notes could benefit suburbs like Parramatta, Liverpool, and Bankstown.

Key Growth Sectors for Jobs

A KPMG analysis of Transport for NSW employment projections highlights several sectors poised for growth over the next decade:

• Health care: Expected to see a nearly 19% increase, adding 74,000 jobs across NSW, driven by an ageing population.
• Professional and scientific services: Along with health care, these sectors are projected to account for almost 30% of the state's total jobs by 2035.
• Logistics and construction: Boosted by infrastructure projects like the Western Sydney International Airport, which is set to create thousands of jobs.

The City of Sydney remains optimistic, planning for an additional 200,000 jobs within its local government area by 2036—a near 40% rise.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence

AI is the X factor for the next decade, says Deloitte economist Stephen Smith. While it may augment rather than replace jobs, it could cause displacement in roles like sales assistants, bank workers, and truck drivers. However, the NSW Productivity Commission found that widespread AI adoption could boost the NSW economy by 11.8% by 2035, creating new jobs and generating $4.5 billion in government revenue.

AI will change the nature of work, increasing demand for skills such as complex problem-solving, social skills, and cognitive abilities. The NSW Intergenerational Report notes that these cognitive skills will become more desirable to employers.

Demographic Challenges and Opportunities

Sydney's ageing population is a primary demographic challenge. Dr Luke Hartigan, an economics lecturer at the University of Sydney, warns that there will be "a lot less young people here." This shift will drive demand in health care and social assistance sectors.

However, housing affordability remains a critical issue. High house prices could discourage young people from moving to Sydney, limit entrepreneurship, and exacerbate income inequality. Ed Cavanough, CEO of the McKell Institute, warns that Sydney risks becoming a stratified society similar to New York or London if housing issues aren't addressed.

What This Means for Job Seekers

For recent graduates like Chriso Chindilas, a finance student, the evolving job market offers opportunities in sectors like financial services, but also requires adaptability. The rise of AI means that upskilling in technology and cognitive skills will be crucial.

Chriso Chindilas is a finance student preparing to enter the workforce. Credit: Dominic Lorrimer

As Sydney's job market evolves, staying informed about these trends will help you navigate your career path effectively.