Updated – Early Monday morning calculations led to an initial misinterpretation of the data. Here's the corrected analysis based on the Goldman Sachs report found here.
If the chart indicates that 2.5% of all US employment is at risk of AI automation, with specific markers showing the percentage by sector, then the legal sector's risk is 0.14% of all US employment. This translates to approximately 228,000 individuals, given the current total US employment of 163,800,000.
With about 1,322,000 lawyers in the US (as per the ABA), this means 17.2% of the legal profession is at risk of AI automation. While this is significantly lower than the 44% predicted two years ago for legal task automation, it's still a substantial figure.
However, being at risk doesn't equate to immediate job loss. The transition to AI replacing lawyers entirely, especially in tasks requiring trust and final decision-making (the 'last mile'), remains a significant hurdle.
Key Takeaways:
- 17.2% of US legal jobs are at risk of AI automation, a notable but not catastrophic figure.
- The actual impact may be less severe, as AI replacing lawyers entirely is still a complex challenge.
- The legal profession is evolving with AI, but mass unemployment is unlikely in the near term.
Thanks to Chris Bridges at Tacit Legal for highlighting the initial calculation error.
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