Future-Proof Your Career: Discover the Jobs AI Won't Replace in Australia

Nearly every job in Australia will be transformed by technological change, with some roles becoming obsolete, according to new research.

A report by investment bank Barrenjoey reveals that only one in 1,000 Australian jobs will likely remain untouched by technology and artificial intelligence (AI), marking the most comprehensive workforce transformation in modern history.

Johnathan McMenamin, head of economic forecasts at Barrenjoey and one of the report's authors, described the findings as "incredibly significant."

"That means that it's very broad base. It's going to affect the way we work right across the workplace," he told SBS News.

Some jobs will change, some will 'fade'

The report analyzed the impacts of AI and technology on two areas: skills and tasks that can be substituted by technology and those that can be augmented by it. Augmentation occurs when technology contributes to better outcomes and productivity.

Findings show that one in two jobs face medium-to-high augmentation, while one in three face the risk of being replaced by technology.

"We are more geared towards augmentation than we are towards substitution," McMenamin said. "This isn't a doomsday piece of research... but it's a more balanced outcome."

These results align with a federal government report from August, which found that generative AI is likely to augment work rather than replace jobs. About 30% of the workforce has jobs with high exposure to augmentation, but only 4% are at risk of automation by generative AI.

The Barrenjoey report indicates that 10.9% of the workforce faces a high risk of replacement, 22.3% at medium risk, 7% highly exposed to augmentation, and 38.4% with medium exposure.

"What will happen is those substitutable occupations will either completely transform or fade over time," McMenamin explained. "It won't be immediate, but they will fade."

Jobs with the most and least risks

Generally, labourers, machine operators, sales workers, and general clerks are the jobs most at risk of substitution and obsoletion.

Consumer staples retail has the highest substitution risk among ASX industries, with over 125,000 checkout operators and 560,000 sales assistants performing tasks that could be automated.

Other high-risk groups include commercial cleaners, sales assistants in retail, kitchen-hands, couriers, truck drivers, and structural steel workers.

In contrast, the diversified consumer services sector—encompassing jobs like tax preparation, legal advice, education, and home security—has the lowest substitution rating.

The life sciences tools and services sector, including medical and laboratory scientists, is next lowest. Workers in real estate investment trusts also have less exposure to technology.

"The things that are most substitutable are those that are very routine," McMenamin said. "These are tasks we've been replacing for a long time."

The top five industries with the highest share of highly substitutable workers are insurance, hotels and restaurants, beverages, consumer staples, and food products.

Which jobs are going to transform?

Jobs likely to be augmented by technology are often cognitive tasks that haven't been disrupted before, such as those in professional roles.

"Now professionals are more exposed to technology, whereas previously it was machine operators and labourers," McMenamin noted.

The top five ASX industries for augmentation potential include:

• Insurance
• Health care technology
• Software
• Interactive media and services
• IT services

McMenamin emphasized that workers "have to adapt," comparing AI to past innovations like computers and the internet.

"Everyone thinks doomsday, but productivity drives increasing living standards," he said.