Post-COVID Job Winners and Losers Revealed: Surprising ATO Data

In this era of high inflation, we hear a lot from people who are not getting ahead: people treading water, going backwards. But anecdotes are frustratingly singular — what we need is data.

But data can be frustratingly agglomerated. Yes, GDP per capita is falling, but national averages are cold and meaningless things. Even the statistics on people’s occupations are pretty bleak, with the Occupation Standard Classification for Australia listing major, opaque groups like “professionals” and “managers” — an obscurantist’s dream.

New ATO data paints a more nuanced picture. By analyzing tax return information, we can see which occupations have thrived and which have withered in the post-COVID years. The results are surprising and challenge the narrative that all workers are suffering equally.

While the cost-of-living crisis dominates headlines, some jobs are doing just fine. The data reveals significant disparities across different sectors, with some experiencing robust growth while others decline. This granular look at the labor market provides valuable insights for job seekers and policymakers alike.

For example, roles in healthcare, technology, and professional services have seen strong income growth, while industries like hospitality, retail, and the arts continue to struggle. The pandemic accelerated certain trends, such as the shift to remote work and digitalization, which have benefited some occupations more than others.

Understanding these trends is crucial for anyone planning their career path. The data suggests that upskilling and adapting to new technologies are key to thriving in the current job market. It also highlights the importance of government support for sectors that are still recovering.

In summary, the post-COVID job market is not a monolith. While many Australians are feeling the pinch, others are experiencing unprecedented opportunities. The ATO data offers a data-driven reality check that can help guide career decisions and policy interventions.