Why Even the Most Employed Workers Are Now Struggling to Find Jobs

It used to be that if you're the type of person who always has a job, you're the type of person who can always find a job. But a new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond complicates that picture, showing a surprising shift in who's struggling to find work.

The study examines three types of workers and how they've fared in their job search. Primary workers, who make up about 55% of the US labor pool, are "almost always employed" with steady work histories. Historically, they had the best odds of finding a new job. But their job-finding rates have fallen 13 percentage points from a November 2022 high to a September 2025 low — the biggest drop for any group covered.

Meanwhile, secondary workers (about 14% of the labor pool) who are often out of work or cycling through jobs, saw their job-finding rate fall just two percentage points in the same period. This is a reversal of past recessions where primary workers fared better.

Why the shift? The analysis points to AI exposure. Roles more exposed to AI have seen the biggest drops in job-finding rates. Before 2023, when ChatGPT became public, job-finding rates moved together regardless of AI exposure. Since then, outcomes have worsened dramatically for AI-exposed fields.

AI is also changing the hiring landscape for entry-level workers. Generative AI can "substantially increase productivity at the task level (particularly for less-experienced workers), potentially altering the composition of new hiring." This means a tighter labor market with roles requiring a wider variety of skills. For experienced white-collar workers, it's meant taking drastic measures, including pay cuts.

It's not all bad news: the latest jobs report showed gains in professional and business services and information sectors. But those gains weren't enough to offset a troubled labor market, with the US losing jobs in July overall. Job hunting might not get much easier anytime soon.